Mobility restrictions were associated with reductions in COVID-19 incidence early in the pandemic: evidence from a real-time evaluation in 34 countries.

Most countries have implemented restrictions on mobility to prevent the spread of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), entailing considerable societal costs but, at least initially, based on limited evidence of effectiveness. We asked whether mobility restrictions were associated with changes in the occurrence of COVID-19 in 34 OECD countries plus Singapore and Taiwan. Our data sources were the Google Global Mobility Data Source, which reports different types of mobility, and COVID-19 cases retrieved from the dataset curated by Our World in Data. Beginning at each country's 100th case, and incorporating a 14-day lag to account for the delay between exposure and illness, we examined the association between changes in mobility (with January 3 to February 6, 2020 as baseline) and the ratio of the number of newly confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases over the past 14 days from the index day (the potentially infective 'pool' in that population), per million population, using LOESS regression and logit regression. In two-thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased cases, especially early in the pandemic. Once both mobility and incidence had been brought down, further restrictions provided little additional benefit. These findings point to the importance of acting early and decisively in a pandemic.

How well does societal mobility restriction help control the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from real-time evaluation (preprint)

Objectives To determine the impact of restrictions on mobility on reducing transmission of COVID-19. Design Daily incidence rates lagged by 14 days were regressed on mobility changes using LOESS regression and logit regression between the day of the 100th case in each country to August 31, 2020. Setting 34 OECD countries plus Singapore and Taiwan. Participants Google mobility data were obtained from people who turned on mobile device-based global positioning system (GPS) and agreed to share their anonymized position information with Google. Interventions We examined the association of COVID-19 incidence rates with mobility changes, defined as changes in categories of domestic location, against a pre-pandemic baseline, using country-specific daily incidence data on newly confirmed COVID-19 cases and mobility data. Results In two thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased COVID-19 incidence, more so early in the pandemic. However, these decreases plateaued as mobility remained low or decreased further. We found smaller or negligible associations between mobility restriction and incidence rates in the late phase in most countries. Conclusion Mild to moderate degrees of mobility restriction in most countries were associated with reduced incidence rates of COVID-19 that appear to attenuate over time, while some countries exhibited no effect of such restrictions. More detailed research is needed to precisely understand the benefits and limitations of mobility restrictions as part of the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Treatment for COVID-19 patients in Vietnam: Analysis of time-to-recovery

Objective: To describe the recovery time and related factors among COVID-19 patients in Vietnam. Methods: We used the secondary data obtained from the official database of the Ministry of Health of Vietnam and other public data sources that were available by April 9th, 2020. Cox proportional hazards model was carried out to identify factors related to recovery time among COVID-19 patients. Results: By April 9th, 2020, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases detected in Vietnam was 255, of which 129 (50.6%) patients had fully recovered. The median recovery time of patients was 17 (95% CI=16-19) days. Older patients had a lower likelihood of recovery (HR=0.98, 95% CI=0.97-0.99, P<0.001), whereas patients with a history of international incoming travel had a higher likelihood of recovery (HR=1.57, 95% CI=1.03-2.40, P=0.036). There was no statistically significant difference in the recovery time of patients treated in different hospital settings. Conclusions: More attention is needed for older patients and who did not have international travel history. Patients confirmed with COVID-19 could be treated at local health facilities to avoid unnecessary referrals and burdens to specialized hospitals at the central level.

Describing the pattern of the COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam.

Given the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the huge negative impacts it is causing, researching on COVID-19-related issues is very important for designing proactive and comprehensive public health interventions to fight against the pandemic. We describe the characteristics of COVID-19 patients detected in the two phases of the epidemic in Vietnam. Data used in this paper were mainly obtained from the official database of the Ministry of Health of Vietnam. Descriptive statistics were carried out using Stata 16 software. As of 18 May 2020, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases detected in Vietnam was 324, 16 cases from 4 cities and provinces in the first phase (during 20 days, 0.8 cases detected per day) and 308 cases from 35 cities, provinces in the second phase (during 76 days, 4.1 cases detected per day). Vietnam has mobilized its entire political system to fight the COVID-19 and achieved some initial successes. We found both similarities and differences between the two phases of the COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam. We demonstrated that the situation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam is getting more complicated and unpredictable.